On Wednesday (10/3/2018), the 10-Year Treasury yield rose by nearly 12 basis points, the largest one-day rise over the past year. The 10-Year yield closed the day at 3.18%, the highest level in more than seven years and well above the May 17th high of 3.11%, a level that some market observers did not expect to be breached. At first equity markets took the rise in stride, but on Thursday 10-year yields continued to rise and equity markets sold off.
So what does this mean and where do we stand?Learn More
Growth is supposed to be a good thing.
But meeting clients demands, tracking down leads and running a business doesn't leave much time for strategic growth. While every advisory business is different, the obstacles to growth each face fall into distinct categories.Learn More
Behold the S&P500’s historical price earnings ratio as compared to its long-term average over the last 50 years. By this measure, across all inflation levels, stocks are expensive. If the PE ratio reverted from its current level of 20.4 to the average of 16.7, stocks would have to fall by 18%.Learn More
If yields are the same a year from now as they are today, then at 3.3%, the 7-Year Treasury has the highest expected one-year total return.
Why? The yield curve is positively sloped, meaning shorter term maturities have lower yields than longer term maturities.Learn More
The challenge before the Fed is to normalize interest rates and contain inflation while not precipitating a recession. Rates remain low relative to inflation and nominal growth, and have been this way since the Great Recession. At current inflation and growth levels, a “normal” level for the Fed Funds rate is around 3.5% based on historical averages. The Fed currently sees a Funds rate of about 3% as neutral and expects to reach that level in 2019. Inflation, while on the rise, remains below the Fed’s 2% target for personal consumption expenditures1. The Fed expects inflation to exceed its 2% target next year.Learn More
Over the first quarter, growth conditions deteriorated versus the prior quarter, but remain favorable. Our Growth Conditions Index (GCONIX) fell from 63% favorable at the end of last year to 37% favorable as of the end of March. Three of the four sub-indexes fell, with Macro Policy falling the most. Consumption & Employment rose by 11%.Learn More
This article identifies the 20 components that contribute to Wealthcare’s Growth Conditions Index (GCONIX) and demonstrates its effectiveness as a leading and coincident indicator of recessions. By contrast, the stock market has "forecasted" five more recessions than have occurred since 1965. Currently, GCONIX continues to indicate favorable growth conditions, indicating that, for now, the recent declines in the equity market do not portend an imminent recession in the U.S.Learn More
Markets are off to a shaky start for 2016. Headlines over the weekend said things like, "U.S. Stocks Have Worst 5-Day Start to a Year Ever."
While the journalists know how to write attention-getting headlines, the real question is what does it mean and what should you do, if anything.
Many believe that the wealth management industry is about to experience a profound paradigm shift from performance-based investing to goals-based investing.Learn More
On July 9, we published an article on Greece’s financial crisis, which has been brewing for years but reached a climax that threatened Greece’s membership in the Eurozone. One month later, investors’ attention has now turned to another credit crisis precipitated by the recent default by Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico’s bonds had been in junk territory since February 2014.Learn More
The fate of Greece in the Eurozone has provided ample content for news stories and drama to move markets, but what really is its significance? In this brief perspectives piece, we frame the issues of this Euro-Greco saga and its significance to the Greece, the Eurozone, and investors.Learn More
In this insightful analysis of risk tolerance, Ron Madey, CFA, CIO challenges traditional understanding of the concept. He demonstrates how Wealthcare’s process captures clients’ risk tolerance in the context of their goals and values, thus helping them keep their resources aligned with what they value most.Learn More
Wealthcare is the proprietary wealth management system of Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. and is designed to ensure your clients experience the dreams of their one life.Learn More
In this important new white paper, David Loeper discusses the process of building capital market assumptions and how he has developed and improved the assumptions used in the Wealthcare process.Learn More
In "Understanding MonteCarlo Simulation", David Loeper clarifies why Monte Carlo Simulation is gaining popularity, what problems it might help us solve, what it shows and perhaps more importantly, what it cannot show.Learn More
In "Do You Perceive a Contradiction? Examining the Premises of Financial Advising," David B. Loeper, CIMA, CIMC discusses the the traditional "best practices" of the financial services industry.Learn More
Capital market assumptions created by the financial services industry - and the results derived therefrom - vary widely. Advisors must evaluate their assumptions in determining whether the results are meaningful and accurate.Learn More